Forecasting bond and stock returns is almost impossible to get right over short time horizons. But over longer time frames the methodology I used in my November 2021 blog Stock Return CAPEr: The Next Decade’s Returns has a good fit with the historical data, particularly the S&P 500. I last updated the estimated returns for US and Canadian stocks in January 2023. Since then, the S&P 500 has been on a terrific run, up 40% in Canadian dollars. Does that mean there is no esCAPE from lower returns over the next 10 years?
