I thought it would be interesting to pass along some high level information on world wealth. The numbers and charts are from the latest UBS Global Wealth Report, which looks at data as of the end of 2022. I found UBS’s highlights of where the wealth is, the number of millionaires, and the concentration of wealth eye-opening, and the inequality between the top and the bottom of the wealth pyramid eye-popping.
Category: Market Analysis
Foreign Fund Facts
In last month’s blog Fun Fund Facts I looked at the performance rankings of Canadian equity funds. The facts showed that over longer time periods there was more of a tendency for bottom funds to remain in the bottom quartile than for top funds to remain in the top quartile, and that using deciles to screen is better than using quartiles. I have expanded the fund facts to those that invest in foreign stocks. Let’s see how the top and bottom decile Canadian equity fund results compare with the results for the top and bottom decile global equity funds.
Fun Fund Facts
When looking at investment funds (pooled or mutual) it is natural to want to keep the top performing funds and ditch the worst performers. But is this a good approach? To help answer this question, at least for Canadian equity funds, I had some fun with the funds’ facts on historical return rankings.
Riding The Bull
As we get into the final stages of the U.S. Federal Reserve raising the federal funds rate, it is natural to think more about a potential bull market rather than a bear market. While so far the low in the S&P 500 was last October, we still don’t have enough data to say that we have entered a new bull market – it will only be clear in hindsight. In the meantime we can compare the valuations of the S&P 500 at the start and end of previous bull markets to the October and current valuations. If October does turn out to have been the start of the next bull market, we can estimate whether the ride will be wild or tame.
Did You Hear The Bell?
In my May 2022 blog Barely A Bear I mentioned the old market adage that they don’t ring a bell at the bottom of a bear market. We never know where the bottom is until we can clearly see it in the rear-view mirror. So far it looks like mid October was the low for the U.S. market, so I thought it was timely to look at whether the bear market is over, and what that means for your asset allocation.
Relative Return Review
Back in March of 2021, in my blog Springing Forward, I wrote about the performance of Canadian, international, emerging market, U.S. value, and U.S. small cap stocks versus the U.S. large cap stocks. After many years of underperformance, U.S. value and small cap stocks had finally started to outperform U.S. large cap stocks. But Canadian, international, and emerging market stocks were only keeping pace. A lot has happened in the markets in the two years since that blog with central banks raising rates to tame inflation and stocks enduring a bear market. So let’s review how the relative returns have evolved.
CAPEd Crusader: Updated 10-Year Returns
Asset allocation is the biggest driver of your long-term returns. But the process requires estimates of returns and risks for the asset classes that you can invest in. For most Canadian portfolios, the largest asset class holdings are usually U.S. and Canadian equities. In my continual crusade to have the optimal asset allocation I have updated the estimated annualized 10-year returns for U.S. and Canadian stocks using the methodology from my November 2021 blog Stock Return CAPEr: The Next Decade’s Returns. Let’s see how the expected returns have changed with the sell-off in stocks over the last year.
Helpful Hedge Funds?
In last October’s blog Alternative Asset Allocation: Tricks and Treats I looked at how the expected return and risk of a portfolio could be improved by adding alternative assets such as private equity and private debt. This month I investigate whether including hedge funds in the asset mix helps a portfolio.
It’s Different This Time, Again
So far in my career I have experienced 6 bear markets and 4 (probably going on 5) recessions. What has this taught me? That while every time is different, every time there are similarities too. In 2022 two different things are the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the cryptocurrency bust. The things we have seen before are high inflation, growth stocks breaking down, and central banks raising interest rates. Watching your portfolio go down during a bear market is stressful. But looking back over the last 100 years, as a group the businesses that constitute the stock markets have been able to adapt and move through the tough times and return to generating profits for their investors.
Is Value Still Value?
Two years ago in my blog Red Alert: Value is Value I looked at the extraordinarily long period of time that value stocks had underperformed growth stocks. I was looking to answer the question of whether it was time for the trend to change. The conclusion was that “we are getting close to when value should start outperforming growth for an extended period.” The trend lasted a few months longer and then became range bound, until the more speculative areas of the market peaked. Since then, value has outperformed growth and the question is, again based on historical data, does it have further to run?