Category: Market Analysis

May 14, 2000 Thanks for the feedback I have received on the blogs, I am glad I have been able to provide some interesting history and guidance. I have done some work to answer a good question one reader asked: Do bear markets tend to have a “false recovery” followed by another significant decline like a lot of people are claiming this might be? Unfortunately, Yes It is just a matter of how much the market falls.  I filtered out the small ups and downs by only looking at the first major rally in the bull markets.  In the History is no […]

April 29, 2020 No Bull: Up Is Better Than Down Bear markets are scary, although they are great opportunities to invest for the long term. It is way more fun to talk about bull markets. It isn’t always easy to tell when we are in one, and once everyone agrees that we are in one it isn’t always clear how long it will last. But those are good problems to deal with! History Is No Mystery As in Part I, I used the S&P 500 stock index daily data to examine the 13 major bull markets since 1933[1], and the […]

April 18, 2020 Can History Help Us? Do past stock market cycles tell us anything about where the market is heading? Or is it really different this time? While I have never come across anyone in my 30 years of investing that can consistently tell us where the stock market is heading over the next year, history can help. Although every bear market is distinct and driven by different forces, they also share a lot of similarities that provide valuable information when combined with forward looking estimates of value. In this two-part series I look at the bear and bull […]